Steven is my economics teacher at school. He likes Vietnam and its people. Therefore, he helped me answer some of the questions that Vietnamese people may have about Finland’s current economy, immigration, and education.
Me: Can you describe briefly how Finland is doing economically?
The good news is that Finland has come a long way since 1945, right? It's an economic miracle, basically. It's a bit like Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, or Hong Kong before the Chinese came in. Finland has grown and developed greatly in the last 70-80 years or so. It's industrialized and urbanized, with a well-educated labor force, good schools, profitable multinational companies, reliable infrastructure, and low corruption. In Finland, you can trust a person's word and that's very important in business and politics. Finland also decided early on to invest heavily in education, starting from primary, secondary then high school, and that has paid off.
Now we look at the concerns here in Finland. It’s me. I'm now in the aging population. That's why we need more people from, for example, Vietnam (hello), to come to Finland and get an education or learn the language and enter the labor force. We have the same problem as in Japan, Italy, and most Western countries nowadays. Aging population demographics aren't working for us: they've been flipped upside down. Vietnam has the totally opposite situation. Most of the population is perhaps under 25 or 35, whereas here most are above 45 or 55. So, if a person from Vietnam wants to come to Finland to be a part of our society or economy, you're more than welcome.
Me: Is it now a good time to come to Finland?
As I said, you’re welcome here. My only concern would be the timing. If I was in your readers’ shoes and I was doing well in Vietnam at the moment: I had a job; I had my relatives nearby; I had a social network in place. I would think twice about coming to Finland just now because we're entering a recession. The recession may affect Vietnam as well, but it certainly affects Finland. Finland is very dependent on its exports, and we know that Germany is now in recession. Germany is Finland's biggest export trading partner. When Germany sneezes, Finland catches a cold. England is also a big trading partner with Finland, and it’s now suffering. Of course, Finland traded a lot with Russia, but not because of the sanctions, due to the war in Ukraine, which has dried up, creating a lot of economic issues.
As we speak, for example, in the service sector, restaurants are going belly up (going bankrupt). If someone from Vietnam wants to come now to Finland and start working as a waiter or waitress, just like a foot inside the labor market, they would not be able to get a job. There aren't any jobs in, say, the restaurant business, hotel business, or flipping burgers at McDonald's. For sure if the person from Vietnam has an engineering degree, they may have a better chance of getting a job at a company here in Finland. But then again, I mean, being that Finland is an export-oriented economy. Finland's export-oriented companies are going to be suffering now in the next two or three years because of this recession taking place in Germany.
Once we get through this recession that's going to perhaps hit the shores of Finland at some point in 2024, we get a rebound in the business cycle. Recession usually lasts for about 6 months, 1 year, or a year and a half. Then, you're more than welcome. In the long term, we need thousands of people coming to Finland to live here, work here, and have families here. The main barrier of course is the language, but I think that's going to change as we move forward.
Finland is entering a recession.
Me: Some say that international students from, for example, India, China, and Vietnam are coming to study in Finland and after they graduate, they will steal jobs from the Finnish people, especially in the tech sector. Do you think this is true?
No. As I mentioned a while ago, if you talk to any entrepreneur in the tech sector in Helsinki or other cities of Finland, they're begging for skilled technicians, skilled workers, and IT. There's a huge shortage in that sector of the economy. So that's a false claim.
Me: Then why is the government making it difficult for skilled workers?
That's a good question. But that's being addressed now by the right-wing conservative government in power. They're carefully looking at this situation. There's always a time lag. The time between a government realizes that we’ve got a problem and the time that they come up with a solution. The penny has dropped, the word is out now that there's this huge labor shortage in key industries in Finland. Now, of course, like I said a while ago, we're going to have unemployment rising in the next year or two, even for high-skilled workers. But the bottom line is that when we look into the future, Finland will implode. The golden years will be over unless we can get people willing to immigrate to Finland. Game over.
Finland needs immigration.
Me: You said that now is not a good time for families to bring their kids and relocate here. Then what about students who are looking to study at a university to get a high-salary job in 3 or 4 years?
Perfect. Like I said, if you can shelter yourself in academia for the next 3-4 years. You're sitting pretty. (Editor: there’s this lengthy part that Steven was surprised Vietnamese students don’t get housing or student allowances from KELA). If you don’t get government financial support, that's a bit of a dilemma. On the one hand, you would be sheltered from the economic recession. But then, on the other hand, you have to somehow support yourself financially. How are you going to do so if you don’t have government transfer payments?
Me: Borrow from the bank.
Steven: OK, fair enough. If you get a decent interest rate, that will work. That would basically be an investment. So, you get a loan from a bank in Vietnam that allows you to come to Finland, educate, support yourself, and have a roof over your head, and food on the table. I would put my money on you. In 3-4 years, you get a degree and then start working to pay your loan back.
I think Vietnamese people are quite thrifty. They understand the importance of saving. So yeah, you’re not going to blow the loan and be partying 24/7, right? You’re going to budget, support yourself financially until you get a degree, and start working to pay back that loan. And that's what I did. In Canada, tuition is very high. Even though I worked every summer in heavy industry and made money, I still had to take a loan. (Editor: here, Steven is once again surprised that students outside of the EU like Vietnamese ones must pay full university tuition unless they get a scholarship).
If you can shelter yourself for the next 3-4 years, you'll be sitting pretty.
Me: Last question. Some people bring their whole family to Finland. Many of them start university again and receive monthly allowances from KELA because they don’t have an income to support their family. Do you think this group of people is causing a dent in Finland’s economy?
Those allowances are generous now because we have a welfare state. Cradle to grave. But that is not sustainable because of the demographics I mentioned and the fact that Finland's public debt is getting quite large as a percentage of GDP. We talked about this yesterday in class, it’s now 74%. The government in power is conservative and making cuts across the board, including social services and unemployment insurance benefits. So, back to your question, this family would still get benefits, get child allowances, and they can still put their kids into school for free and all the rest of it. But it’s not going to be like it was, let's say, five years ago. They must be realistic that they won’t live in a fancy house and go to the restaurant once or twice a week. They'll be living, you know, a decent life, but kind of getting by. They also have to realize that the trend will be downward concerning these government transfers (less money will be given). At some point, they will have to think about learning the language and getting a job to provide for the family of their own.
Anyway, I would still welcome families to Finland because you've got a family unit that provides stability, which is a very good thing. Moreover, we need more kids in Finland because the birth rate is way low here. The population is getting smaller. As far as I’m concerned, you've got that work ethic in Vietnam, you're not the kind of people to just come here and sit out. So, I would definitely encourage families to come. Bring along your granny if you want, doesn't bother me. The more families from Vietnam come to Finland the better. But we have got to be realistic about setbacks and the language barrier.
Finland needs families to immigrate here.
Thank you Steven for taking the time to do this interview. I love Economics, so please give me a lot of 7s in class! Here's a video of him eating popcorn in class.
コメント